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Speculation that Rishi Sunak is set to call a summer general election intensified on Wednesday, with Downing Street declining to rule one out and some senior Tories saying there is no point in waiting until the autumn.
The prime minister is holding a cabinet meeting on Wednesday afternoon at which ministers will assess the economic situation, after headline inflation fell to 2.3 per cent.
Sunak at prime minister’s questions did little to quell the speculation, repeating his line that “there is going to be an election in the second half of the year”.
That timeframe could include the month of July. An election would take place 25 working days after parliament is dissolved. Downing Street described talk of an early election as “the rumour mill”.
Senior Tories said Sunak could go to the country claiming that prices were under control and that growth was returning, offering a “narrow path to victory”. Earlier this month the UK recorded its fastest quarterly growth in two years.
One said it was unlikely chancellor Jeremy Hunt would have enough fiscal scope for tax cuts in an Autumn Statement and that neither he nor Sunak would do anything deemed “irresponsible”.
After UK inflation dropped less than forecast to 2.3 per cent in April, investors now believe the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and may not be confident enough to act in August either.
Sunak and his ministers will on Wednesday have to consider whether the economic picture will significantly improve before an autumn election, which had been expected by most MPs.
The Conservatives trail Labour by almost 21 points according to the FT poll tracker, but Tory strategists believe Labour’s lead is fragile and can be eroded during a campaign.
A recent clue that Sunak could trigger a summer election came when Tory bosses held crunch talks, first reported by the Financial Times, on Monday last week about how to finance an early campaign.
The Conservative board and a key finance committee hosted conversations about how much the party would be allowed to spend within campaign rules if the poll was held in the summer, given the regulated spending period spans the 12 months before an election.
Tory figures who manage relationships with megadonors were instructed to discreetly inquire about the possibility of eliciting large donations at short notice, according to party insiders.
However, Tory officials publicly dismissed the significance of such moves, insisting the meetings were pre-scheduled and that rolling election scenarios and fundraising opportunities are considered throughout an election year.
Senior party figures also noted an uptick in activity by the Downing Street events and visits team in recent days.
Businesses sympathetic to the Conservatives have been contacted to see if their sites can be used for key events in coming weeks, Tory insiders said.
But there has been scepticism about the wisdom of Sunak calling an election earlier than necessary when his Conservative party is far behind Labour in the polls.
The general election has to take place before late January 2025.
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